If you beat Nebraska and Ohio State in football by the same margin, that usually makes sense. And good for you.
If you beat those two schools by the same five points in basketball, at home, 80 hours apart, it stirs debate. Basically: are you good, or was the big upset of the No. 5 Buckeyes an aberration?
We decided to delve into this conundrum in point/counterpoint fashion.
First up is Bill Liesse, a journalist who columnized from both of Illinois’ color-TV Final Fours after covering Ken Norman and the formation of the Flyin’ Illini for the D.I. He will argue that Illinois fans shouldn’t read too much into Tuesday’s 79-74 win over Ohio State.
Illini fans are longing to recapture the swagger they felt from 2001-06, when the team was ranked in the Top 10 more often than not, virtually never lost at home and won four Big Ten titles. The game on Tuesday held the feeling of those days.
That does not mean the team is returning to that time.
The easiest way to dismiss this upset is to look at Brandon Paul and his 43 points. On the Ohio State side, they’re probably saying “We got beat by a kid going out of his head. What can you do?”
That’s only partially on point. Tuesday was a team win, with Joseph Bertrand, Meyers Leonard and D.J. Richardson all contributing significantly before Paul completely took over late.
It is true, however, that Paul’s uncharacteristic shooting — 11-of-13 overall and 8-of-9 on 3s after missing his first two shots — renders impossible a repeat of this particular winning recipe. It’s also true that Paul’s numbers led to a 60 percent shooting night by the team.
Funny numbers in the box score scream “outlier” and won’t mean a thing when the ball goes up Jan. 19 at Penn State.
Look deeper into that box and you see ongoing Illinois problems: Only 45 shot attempts, 21 fewer than the Buckeyes. This on the heels of 44 FGA vs. Nebraska. The team does not offensive rebound, it regularly turns it over more than 15 times and it plays catch around the 3-point ring for most of the shot clock on many possessions.
You can’t score enough to beat good teams with so few possessions and the inherent pressure on each one. Not when you perennially reside toward the bottom of the NCAA in free throw tries. Shoot your usual 45% on those 45 shots, Illini, and you’re scratching and clawing to get to 60 points, per usual.
It’d be nice to think the Illini have figured out how to score in the 70s now, but you thought that after Gonzaga and Missouri, didn’t you? They reverted right back to teeth-pulling wins over the likes of Cornell and Minnesota. There’s a reason, too. With half the box scores this year reading “0″ for transition points, and 20 FTA nights about as common as 80th birthday parties at the Hall (forget it on the road), Illinois simply has to be an extraordinary shooting team to succeed, and it isn’t.
Other concerns include the annually shrinking bench, which contributed zero points vs. OSU, its third shutout in the last 10 games; two point guards with astonishingly low assist numbers who simply don’t get the ball to the scorers in the right spots; evidence from the huddles, if not the floor, that Leonard and Paul have tuned out Bruce Weber; the 214 national rank in rebounding; the even-worse rebounding ability on nights when Leonard is called for fouls; and the nagging scare that Bertrand, a 3 ppg scorer through a dozen games, is not the 14 ppg guy he has been for three weeks.
Illinois’ 15-3 record belies the fact it has played pedestrian or lousy in 13 of the games and large parts of two others (Maryland and Missouri). Weber’s teams have had sterling records through the holidays a few times during the now-six doldrums years since Dee Brown left campus. Virtually every season grinds to its conclusion.
You’re looking for a hot streak out of a program that couldn’t win two straight games over the last two months a year ago. Ain’t gonna happen.
For the countering argument, we turn to Bill Liesse, who would have attended the Eddie-over-Magic-Johnson game in 1979 if it weren’t a school night, wore wrist bands well up his arm to emulate Derek Harper and took in Tuesday’s win over OSU roughly one outstretched Nnanna Egwu from Lou and Mary Henson.
Bill, you ignorant slut. (Sorry, had to be done.)
Get out of your box scores and sense what is happening here. This is 2003-04 all over again.
You remember Bruce’s first year. Dee, Deron and Luther not getting the offense for a while, and thus turning in stinkers like Providence and a 20-point loss at Wisconsin.
Then, they got it. And ran off 12 straight conference wins for Illinois’ first outright Big Ten title in 50 years. Twelve straight! Who does that?
Any college team anywhere would be lucky to re-create MV3 (Dee, Deron, Luther). The sheer greatness of Williams makes it almost impossible. So while The Ingredients (a nickname assigned by lifelong Illini hoop afficianado Doug White to the three guards who committed within 24 hours some four years ago) might not be MV3, they are nonetheless a good fit for Weber’s motion. They will turn the same corner the 2003-04 team did, and after they do, look out.
The current three scorers complement each other nicely. You have a catch-and-shoot guy in Richardson, a slasher in Paul who can also shoot well if he does it off the pass and not the bounce, and a midrange expert in Bertrand. The intelligent, fifth-year senior who has been watching for three games, Sam Maniscalco, should see how he can facilitate The Ingredients upon his return. Get it to JoeBert on cuts. Kick out to D.J. when defenders cheat toward Leonard. Implore Paul to drive more, despite Tuesday’s rainbows, and choose his 3 tries more wisely.
Furthermore, as good as James Augustine and Roger Powell were, the current roster has assets that 2004 and 2005 lacked: Leonard, destined to be the best big man in program history, and Egwu, probably a future NBA 7-footer himself. While the chances of the latter helping significantly this season are in the long-shot category, at the very least Egwu has a zest for defending the rim that has been completely lacking in the program for years.
Jared Sullinger, while scoring a few above his average with 21, made a single free throw at the Assembly Hall. That alone reflects a giant step forward for the Illini. It also reflects a defensive makeup that will allow this team to compete in upcoming games while the offensive metamorphosis continues to evolve.
Paul and Bertrand provide wing D that can adapt to opponents from 6-foot-2 through about 6-8 or so. Richardson and Tracy Abrams will dog ballhandlers. Leonard and Egwu have the rim. This defense is a large part of the reason the team is 15-3 and half-game out in the Big Ten despite flawed efforts in four of the five league games thus far.
Weber used very little bench vs. Ohio State, leading some to say he’s following an annual pattern of cranking it down to a seven-man rotation in league play. Not so fast on that assessment.
For one, he had a nine-day layoff coming up, so that game allowed an extra-heavy reliance on starters. For another, Maniscalco was out of the equation.
From my seat, Weber has been masterful at minutes allocation this season. He began it with Griffey at a traditional PF, and sprinkled in plenty of Mike Shaw as a backup there. He deftly got Abrams ample time behind his senior PG. He went so far as using 12 players before halftime in the foul-heavy Gonzaga game and has kept Egwu nicely involved despite extremely rare foul trouble by Leonard.
The Bertrand emergence changed everything midstream, and Bruce has adapted. Griffey might have been tossed aside too abruptly for some, but three points on that. 1) Tyler is going to have to find and front some cutters in his life to not be a huge defensive liability to this team. 2) Traditional 4 men are hard to find on many a college team right now. 3) It’s not over yet. You could see bounce-back minutes out of Griffey as this team finds and redefines its identity.
Weber also has shown increasing confidence in Myke Henry. Like Egwu, Henry might not contribute significantly before this year is out. But drawing on the 2004 parallel again, the main subject at play here is building for what should be a nationally prominent run in the 2013 NCAA tournament. Henry, the most likely pro on campus behind the 7-footers, needs to grow along that timeline. He owns an inside-outside offensive game that is reflective of his Chicago westside predecessors of yesteryear, the aforementioned Eddie Johnson and his superstar Westinghouse teammate, Mark Aguirre.
For all the times you have heard, or said, “I thought Weber was going to do better with all the good recruits here now,” realize that it requires some patience. It is a process.
And it’s happening.